Source: Project website (http://www.specs-fp7.eu/) and CORDIS (EU FP7 Project ID 308378)
Project Overview and Scope
The SPECS project, funded under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-ENVIRONMENT), ran from November 2012 to January 2017. Coordinated by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (with key involvement from institutions like the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima and partners across Europe and beyond, including KNMI, Meteo-France, Max Planck Institute, and others), it addressed a critical gap in climate services.
At the time, the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) highlighted the demand for actionable climate information on seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) timescales for economic, industrial, and political planning. However, seasonal forecasting progress was slow, and decadal forecasting remained in its early stages. Europe lagged in integrating advances from climate modeling, weather forecasting, and new model components (e.g., sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, ocean dynamics, and higher resolution).
SPECS aimed to bridge this by developing a new generation of European climate forecast systems. Its core scope included:
- Identifying key challenges in s2d climate prediction and testing solutions from a “seamless” perspective (across timescales and between producers/users).
- Improving global forecast systems through innovative experiments on initial conditions, natural variability modes, radiative forcing, and resolution.
- Enhancing regionalization and downscaling tools for reliable, local climate information over land.
- Focusing on high-impact extreme events (e.g., European summers, North Atlantic shifts) and prediction uncertainty.
- Integrating observational data for better initialization and post-processing.
- Developing communication protocols and services for stakeholders in policy, industry, and society.
The project integrated knowledge from prior EU and international efforts, ensuring interoperability for operational use and supporting adaptation to near-future climate variations.
Key Deliverables and Achievements
SPECS delivered tangible advancements in climate prediction capabilities:
- Improved Forecast Systems: New initialized Earth System Models (ESMs) and experiments testing land-surface (soil moisture, snow, vegetation), sea-ice, atmospheric composition, and solar irradiance impacts. These contributed to pre-operational suites and standards for operational systems.
- Regional and Local Tools: Efficient downscaling, statistical combination, bias adjustment, and multi-model approaches. Public software packages were released for forecast quality assessment, downscaling, and producing tailored climate information.
- Extreme Events and Predictability: Detailed studies of high-impact events improved risk estimates and understanding of mechanisms limiting skill (e.g., initial shock and model drift).
- Dissemination and Services: Factsheets for broad audiences, stakeholder engagement (e.g., with EUPORIAS), and strategies for conveying prediction quality. Results supported Copernicus Climate Change Service integration.
- Legacy and Interoperability: Data made publicly available via ESGF; coordination with CMIP and other projects for seamless climate modeling across timescales.
The project ran 51 months with strong outcomes, pushing boundaries in forecast quality, reliability, and usability for European climate services.
Project Reporting Highlights
Final Report Summary (Key Excerpts):
SPECS successfully developed quasi-operational systems for actionable local s2d climate information, with a strong focus on extremes. It acted as “glue” for disparate research efforts, enhancing European capacity for adaptation. Public tools and documentation amplified impact beyond the project. Challenges like model drift were addressed, influencing WCRP directions.
Periodic reporting (available on CORDIS) documented progress in work packages on modeling, downscaling, verification, stakeholder interaction, and dissemination. Experiments yielded better understanding of predictability sources, with results feeding into operational forecasting and policy support.
Overall, SPECS strengthened Europe’s role in climate services, contributing to better-informed decision-making amid climate variability and change. Its open outputs continue to benefit researchers, services, and users today. For full details, refer to the CORDIS project page.
